With two games being cancelled due to flight issues, and games to bookend the start and end of the season, these two teams have struggled to have much continuity against each other.
While this series was live, it was all Melbourne – with the two Avalanche wins (and the OT game) coming in the 3 games after the Ducks had locked up top spot – with the two games on the final weekend as the Ducks sent a very depleted squad to Adelaide. All three of these games included young backup goaltender, Tom Forrest in net for the Ducks and Avalanche stand-in netminder Curtis Villani.
As much as can be gleaned from the series, 4 games were decided by a goal (including one OT game) – showing the teams are reasonably evenly matched.
Melbourne 3 regulation wins, 1 OT win, Adelaide 2 regulation wins.
- Melbourne wins – 5-4 at iceHQ (14 May), 4-3 at iceHQ (15 May), 6-2 at iceHQ (23 July), 5-4 (OT) at Adelaide (30 July)
- Adelaide wins – 5-4 at iceHQ (24 July), 10-3 at Adelaide (31 July)
Melbourne versus Adelaide
Goals per game: 4.500 (27 total)
Shots per game: 40.000 (240 total) – Shooting efficiency = 11.3%
Powerplay: 15.8% (3/21)
Penalty Kill: 84.6% (19/24)
| Player | # | GP | G | A | P |
| Hector Vrielynck | 11 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Lliam Webster | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Hayden Dawes | 20 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Todd Cutter | 17 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Ryan Ruddle | 47 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Michael McMahon | 25 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Jack Carpenter | 55 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Overall | Vs Avalanche | ||||||
| Goalies | GP | Save % | GAA | SAG | Save % | GAA | SAG |
| Dayne Davis | 16 | 0.919 | 3.288 | 40.375 | 0.932 | 3.000 | 44.400 |
| Tom Forrest | 4 | 0.862 | 6.319 | 45.641 | 0.854 | 6.754 | 46.154 |
Adelaide versus Melbourne
Goals per game: 4.667 (28 total)
Shots per game: 45.000 (270 total) – Shooting efficiency = 10.4%
Powerplay: 15.4% (4/26)
Penalty Kill: 84.2% (16/19)
| Player | # | GP | G | A | P |
| Jake Riley | 16 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Nathaniel Benson | 13 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Darren Corstens | 12 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Yoann Levesque | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Joey MacDougall | 26 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Jake Hazel | 25 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
*4 players have 3 points – Steele, Woodman, Daniel Chen, Julian Friedrich.
| Overall | Vs Ducks | ||||||
| Goalies | GP | Save % | GAA | SAG | Save % | GAA | SAG |
| Jeremy Friedrich | 9 | 0.904 | 2.600 | 26.991 | 0.868 | 5.085 | 38.644 |
| Matus Trnka | 5 | 0.917 | 2.802 | 33.623 | 0.929 | 4.068 | 56.949 |
| Curtis Villani | 5 | 0.861 | 4.009 | 28.863 | 0.871 | 3.980 | 30.846 |
Melbourne
Overall record (10W – 2OTW – 2OTL – 4L) (0.722 PCT)
- Home record (6W – 1OTL – 3L) (0.633 PCT)
Strengths
- Scoring – The Ducks led the PHL in goals scored in 2022 – averaging almost 5 per game (4.944). Due to a combination of creating chances (40.833 shots per game, just behind the Avalanche’s 41.778) and highly efficient shooting (12.1%) meaning they take their chances well. Dawes, Webster and Vrielynck all average over 2 points per game on the season, with Ruddle at 1.875.
- Goaltending – Dayne Davis is the most decorated goalie in Australian hockey for a reason – leading the league in save percentage with 0.919, despite facing 40 shots per game have the Ducks confident they can attack and he will have them covered at the other end of the ice.
- Special teams – combined, the Ducks have the best special teams in the league – with a PP running at 24.3% the league’s best and the 84.2% PK both league-leading. Oddly, both are much stronger away than at home.
- Taking chances – combining the shooting efficiency and save percentage[1] of the Ducks overall gives a ratio of 1.028 – the highest in the league, which indicates the Ducks are very good at making the most of their opportunities, while limiting their opponents. By contrast, Adelaide are at 0.999.
Weaknesses
- Defence – the Ducks allow the second-highest number of shots on goal per game with 41.056, behind the Rampage. As mentioned above, Davis helps them out a lot here – but they will give you chances.
- Discipline – a relative weakness rather than an absolute one. The Ducks take 12.778 PIMs per game, but their opponents only take 10 – the largest differential in the league. A big, physical team they often look to assert themselves on games, but that can bite them.
When they win
- Special teams strong – 27.3% and 89.7%, shoot efficiently (13.1%) and goaltending (0.929).
Top 10 scorers
| Player | # | GP | G | A | P | |
| 1 | Hayden Dawes | 20 | 17 | 24 | 14 | 38 |
| 2 | Lliam Webster | 2 | 14 | 12 | 22 | 34 |
| 3 | Ryan Ruddle | 47 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 30 |
| 4 | Hector Vrielynck | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | Jack Carpenter | 55 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 17 |
| 6 | Todd Cutter | 17 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Michael McMahon | 25 | 17 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| 8 | Ryan Bennett | 67 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Logan Gallacher | 96 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Justin Dixon | 98 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Adelaide
Overall record (8W – 2OTW – 1OTL – 7L) (0.593 PCT)
- Away record (3W – 2OTW – 5L) (0.433 PCT)
Strengths
- Depth – the broadest spread of scoring across the league has been key for the Avalanche to keep opposing teams on their toes. The top 5 scorers at the Avalanche contribute only 54.7% of team points – the next lowest amount being the 59.4% for the Ducks. 16 Adelaide players have at least one goal this season as well – the highest in the league.
- Defence – while Adelaide have a pair of very high quality goalies in Trnka and Friedrich, they also protect them very well – conceding only 30.3 shots on goal per game – while the other two playoff-bound teams concede over 40 per game each. This is strongest in Adelaide (23.250 shots against per game), but even outside of the peculiarities of their barn, they only concede 35.9 shots per game.
- Goaltending – building on the defence, Adelaide have the strongest goalie pairing in the league – though availability has been an issue lately meaning Curtis Villani has head to step in. Ranking by save percentage have these two second (Trnka) and third (Friedrich) in the league[2].
- Penalty Killing – building on the strong defensive skills, the Avalanche have the second-best penalty kill in the league, stopping 84.1% of all powerplay opportunities against them.
- Form – in the second half of the season, the Avalanche have tied with the Ducks for the best record, with Jake Riley the second-highest scorer with 19 points from 8 games.
Weaknesses
- Power play – while the PK is a strength of Adelaide’s, the Powerplay is quite the opposite. A success rate of 16.7% over the season is the only team below 20%.
- Discipline – Across the season as a whole this hasn’t been an issue, but in the back half of the season Adelaide has taken on more penalty minutes at 22 per game (compared to less than 10 for the whole season). Helpfully for Adelaide though – the other 3 teams have more.
When they win
- Goaltending stands out (0.958 save percentage), special teams dominant – 24.3% on the PP & 91.7% on the PK
Top 10 scorers
| Player | # | GP | G | A | P | |
| 1 | Nathaniel Benson | 13 | 18 | 10 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Jake Riley | 16 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Yoann Levesque | 8 | 17 | 16 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Darren Corstens | 12 | 18 | 9 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Joey MacDougall | 26 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Tomek Sak | 11 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Jamie Woodman | 27 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| 8 | Jake Hazel | 25 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Daniel Chen | 51 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 10 | Zach Steele | 18 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Review of the Walker Cup Playoff
Adelaide’s strengths were all on show against a disappointing Brisbane team in the 11-2 belting.
11 players picked up at least one point, with Jake Riley’s hot streak continuing in emphatic fashion as he picked up 6 points including a hat-trick. 5 different goal scorers and Friedrich stopping 29 of 31 shots – while keeping Sobchak and McTaggart off the scoresheet (save for one secondary assist) is a testament to Adelaide’s ability to shut down stars as well.
This dominant performance came without Darren Corstens as well, who is set to come back for the Grand Final series, further showing the depth in the Avalanche squad.
Across a league this number will go to 1.000 – save percentage and shooting efficiency are opposite sides of the same coin.
Not including Milan Novysedlak’s one game played